Productive Ecosystems and the arrow of development

Abstract Economic growth is associated with the diversification of economic activities, which can be observed via evolution product export baskets. Exporting a new dependent on having, and acquiring, specific set capabilities, making process path-dependent. Taking an agnostic view identity here we derive probabilistic model for directed dynamical capability accumulation countries. Using international trade data, identify pre-existing products, Ecosystem, that enables to exported competitively. We construct network Eco Space, where edge weight corresponds overlap. uncover modular structure, show low- middle-income countries move from communities dominated by small Ecosystem products advanced (large Ecosystem) clusters over time. Finally, our predictive appearances.